Global coal consumption is expected to reach a new peak in 2026, according to the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Demand could increase by 1,2% this year to reach 8,94 billion tons, whereas the agency was still anticipating a slight decline in consumption at the end of 2025.
This increase is largely due to the impact of the war in the Middle East on energy markets. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction in liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries have driven up gas prices, prompting some players to turn more to coal to meet their energy needs. "Even though no coal shipments are transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption has nonetheless had repercussions on coal markets," the IEA points out.
Coal still supported by tensions over gas
This development comes at a time when coal consumption had already reached record levels in 2024 and 2025. The IEA had previously predicted a slight decrease in 2026, before a gradual decline until 2030. Geopolitical tensions and their consequences on energy supplies are therefore calling this short-term trajectory into question.
The evolution of coal contrasts sharply with that expected for renewable energies. In its outlook published in November 2025, the IEA estimated that their demand, driven in particular by solar photovoltaics, would grow faster than that of any other major energy source in all the scenarios studied. Despite this momentum, coal is still expected to break a global consumption record this year.
