An internal document from the European Commission, whose official publication is expected on Wednesday, acknowledges that the bloc’s ambition to have operational military forces by 2030 is seriously compromised, despite historic investments and declared political will.
The assessment is severe, and it comes from within. A preliminary version of the European Commission’s 2027 work program, obtained before its official presentation, provides a worrying overview of the continent’s military readiness. Despite €418 billion allocated to defense in 2025 and an unprecedented political mobilization since the end of the Cold War, Europe has yet to translate these efforts into truly deployable, sustainable, and interoperable forces.
« Our external borders, critical infrastructures, and the values underpinning our European way of life are increasingly threatened, » warns the eight-page document, which notably cites hybrid threats as a factor of growing instability. This text echoes the conclusions of the first annual defense readiness report published by the European Defence Agency, which already pointed out persistent capability gaps.
The gradual withdrawal of the United States from its military presence in Europe, decided by the Trump administration as part of a comprehensive force review, worsens the situation. European Commissioner for Defence, Andrius Kubilius, recalled that filling this gap would require developing so-called « enabling » capabilities — strategic transport, aerial refueling, space and cyber defense — with costs estimated at around €500 billion.
Faced with this difficult equation, the Commission intends to create a new European instrument dedicated to these critical capabilities, in cooperation with Member States. The work program also foresees the establishment of an emergency protocol for European security, presented by President Ursula von der Leyen as the Union’s equivalent of NATO’s Article 4. This mechanism would allow any Member State facing a direct and credible threat to benefit from a rapid collective response. The creation of a European Security Council with the bloc’s closest partners is also being considered.
These proposals come amid a rise in hybrid incidents along Europe’s eastern borders: explosive-laden drones discovered at German airports, commercial ships sunk in the Black Sea, repeated incursions into the airspace of member countries. In response, NATO launched its Eastern Sentry multidomain defense program. On the European side, investments in anti-drone technologies are said to have increased sixfold between 2024 and 2025, but only one-third of the corresponding programs are expected to be completed before 2030, according to the document.
Support for Ukraine also occupies a central place in the stated priorities. Kyiv is preparing to mobilize up to one billion euros from its €90 billion European loan to finance joint defense projects with its Union partners, notably in air defense, drones, and munitions. The 2030 deadline remains the reference: several Western intelligence services have identified it as the period during which Russia might be tempted to test the strength of the Atlantic Alliance.
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