The Trump administration is working on a plan to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East by increasing pressure on Tehran and expanding normalized relations with Israel . This still-developing plan could shape US policy in the region until the end of the presidential term.
Three main themes are emerging from the ongoing discussions in Washington , according to two US officials and two other sources familiar with the matter. The first is to strengthen what US officials call "regional convergence" among US allies to deter and contain Iran. The second aims to resolve the fallout from the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war. The third seeks to expand the Abraham Accords while also reviving normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian component would not represent a radical break with previous administrations. Since the 1979 revolution, Washington has worked to contain Tehran's influence by strengthening its alliances with the Gulf States. What would change is the ambition to formalize these efforts within a more structured framework, with enhanced defense and security coordination among regional allies.
Normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv remains stalled. Saudi Arabia is conditioning any rapprochement on concrete progress toward a settlement in Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian state, a demand that current negotiations have failed to meet. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 during Trump's first term with the United Arab Emirates , Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, serve as a model for this expansion.
On the Gaza front, the plan envisions moving to a next phase that includes the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, and the establishment of a transitional administration. Two other issues are intertwined: a security agreement between Israel and Syria, in the context of the fall of Bashar al-Assad 's regime by the end of 2024, and the implementation of an agreement with Lebanon aimed at limiting Hezbollah's military capabilities, in accordance with the 2024 ceasefire that stipulated the Shiite movement's withdrawal north of the Litani River. Israel has since accused Hezbollah of rebuilding its arsenal, while Beirut denounces ongoing Israeli airstrikes on its territory.
The discussions could be influenced by the US midterm elections and the Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October. One of the sources consulted tempered expectations: “They are preparing it, but it is not yet ready. The idea is to link a whole range of issues in the region. It is still unclear whether all of the United States ' allies in the region will be willing to join.”
