From August 10, Portuguese motorists should benefit from a decrease of about 12 cents per liter on diesel and 12,5 cents on gasoline, according to forecasts from the Automobile Club of Portugal.
If the projections are confirmed, the price of diesel will fall to €1,931 per liter, compared to €2,051 this Friday. Regular 95-octane gasoline, currently at €1,980 per liter, would drop to €1,855. These figures were calculated by the Automobile Club of Portugal (ACP) based on raw material prices recorded at the close of markets last Thursday.
The ACP (French Petroleum Regulatory Authority) is careful to qualify its estimates: "If crude oil and fuel prices fluctuate between now and the end of Friday, some variation in prices compared to what is forecast may occur." Current average prices are published by the Directorate General for Energy and Geology (DGEG), which calculates them based on prices reported by service stations, weighted by sales volumes and discounts applied, particularly through fleet cards.
With the sector being liberalized, the prices charged to the consumer vary from one station to another according to the pricing policy of each brand.
These fluctuations are occurring within a context of significant instability linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The United States, Israel, and Iran are involved in military operations in the region, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and natural gas transits, is causing significant market volatility.
Faced with this volatility, the Portuguese government has pledged to apply an extraordinary and temporary reduction to the ISP, the tax on petroleum products, whenever a price increase of more than 10 cents is observed. An adjustment to this discount, which has already occurred in recent weeks, could therefore alter the estimated values for next Monday.
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