The senatorial elections of Sunday, September 27, did not fundamentally alter the overall balance of power in the Luxembourg Palace, but they did shift the dynamics within the central bloc. Renaissance emerged weakened from the vote, while Horizons continued its expansion, thus opening a period of negotiations regarding the integration of the newly elected members.
The Rally of Democrats, Progressives and Independents (RDPI) group, which brings together Emmanuel Macron 's main supporters in the Senate as well as several representatives from France's overseas territories, is expected to shrink from 19 to around 15 members. This number still needs to be finalized, particularly depending on the latest election results and the members' choices regarding party affiliation.
The group therefore remains able to exist, even though its future appeared uncertain before the election. But its decline illustrates Renaissance's persistent difficulties in an election whose outcome largely depends on the local presence of the parties.
Horizons now claims 20 senators
The situation is more favorable for Horizons. Édouard Philippe's party now claims 20 senators, two more than before the election.
However, not all of them sit in the same group. Some Horizons members belong to the Independents group, chaired by Claude Malhuret, while others sit with the Centrist Union. This distribution reflects the tradition in the Senate, where party affiliations and parliamentary groups do not always coincide.
Hervé Marseille 's centrist Union is expected to retain between 58 and 60 senators and remain one of the main forces in the Upper House.
The "transfer window" for new senators begins
The election results are not yet sufficient to determine the final composition of the groups. Several new senators still need to choose their affiliation.
The various groups have a few days to convince unaffiliated or hesitant elected officials before the official announcement of the composition of the groups.
The case of Renaud Muselier is being closely watched. The president of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region, elected senator in Bouches-du-Rhône under a Renaissance banner, does not plan at this stage to join the RDPI group and has yet to determine where he will sit.
For Renaissance, Horizons, and the centrists, a second battle begins after the elections: the battle for party affiliations. This will determine precisely the influence of each party in the new Senate configuration.
