The new Elabe poll conducted for BFMTV and La Tribune on Sunday, published on Saturday, November 14, confirms the changes observed in voting intentions for the 2027 presidential election. Marine Le Pen is polling between 31% and 33% depending on the scenarios tested, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon is reaching 17% to 18,5%, an increase of 1,5 to 2 points. But one of the significant developments concerns David Lisnard. The mayor of Cannes and president of Nouvelle Énergie is now credited with 8% to 10,5% of voting intentions, an increase of up to four points compared to the previous poll. In scenarios where both men are included, David Lisnard is ahead of Bruno Retailleau, the president of the Republicans. This shift comes precisely as the right-wing and centrist candidates are trying to agree on organizing a primary.
Édouard Philippe, for his part, saw a 1,5-point drop in comparable scenarios. The former Prime Minister reached 15% when tested without Gabriel Attal or David Lisnard, but fell to 12% when the leader of Renaissance was also a candidate and to 13% when David Lisnard ran without Attal. In the scenario with the largest number of candidates, he dropped to 9,5%. Raphaël Glucksmann also declined by 2 to 2,5 points and generally garnered between 13 and 14%, with a lower level in one particular scenario. These results illustrate the effects of the dispersion of candidacies, without allowing us to conclude that a candidate would automatically benefit from the withdrawal of their competitors. Vote transfers are never automatic.
Teddy Riner reached 4,5%, ahead of Attal and Retailleau in a configuration
The poll also measures the initial effects of Teddy Riner's entry into the campaign. The five-time Olympic champion, a candidate since Monday, garnered 4,5% of voting intentions in the scenario with the largest number of contenders. He thus surpasses Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau , both credited with 4% in the same scenario. This figure differs from the 22% of people who declared themselves willing to consider voting for him in another survey published this week. It also differs from the 2% obtained in the Cluster17 poll, which was based on a different list of candidates and methodology. The Elabe results thus provide a new indication of initial voting intentions in favor of the judoka, without allowing for a reliable measurement of changes between polling institutes.
Conducted on November 12 and 13 among 1,500 people representative of the French adult population, this survey has a margin of error of between 1,1 and 3,1 points, depending on the results. Differences between certain candidacies should therefore be interpreted with caution. The poll comes amid intense discussions about a potential primary, as Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and David Lisnard prepare a meeting of their teams on November 17, and Gérard Larcher hopes to bring together the four main center-right candidates.
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