The new presidential barometer published this Monday, November 9, by RTL and M6 confirms the difficulties faced by the center and right-wing contenders. According to the Toluna Harris Interactive survey, Marine Le Pen gathers between 34 and 36% of first-round voting intentions, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon reaches 18 to 19% depending on the scenarios. Édouard Philippe, who still refuses to participate in a joint primary, records a noticeable decline. The former Prime Minister drops to 14% when tested as the sole center candidate, two points less than in the previous wave. In another scenario, where David Lisnard and Dominique de Villepin are also among the candidates, he falls to 12%.
The simultaneous presence of several center and right-wing personalities significantly changes the results. When Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe are both candidates, the mayor of Le Havre only gathers 11%, against 6% for the president of Renaissance. David Lisnard confirms his progress in the different studied configurations. The president of Nouvelle Énergie reaches up to 9% of voting intentions, while Bruno Retailleau stands between 7 and 10% depending on the hypotheses. Raphaël Glucksmann gathers between 11 and 13%, in a context of strong competition among the various left-wing candidacies.
Two-thirds of French respondents favor a primary
The survey contains another important insight for the battle opposing Gabriel Attal to Édouard Philippe. According to Toluna Harris Interactive, 66% of French respondents declare themselves in favor of organizing a primary to designate a common candidate from the center and right. Support for this method even reaches 93% among Renaissance sympathizers, 82% among Horizons supporters, and 77% among Republicans’ close circles. These results come as several political leaders call for a quick agreement on the modalities of such a consultation. Bruno Retailleau, David Lisnard, and Gabriel Attal now defend the principle of a primary, while Édouard Philippe prefers to continue his campaign without submitting to it.
Conducted online from November 3 to 5 among 2,101 registered voters, this survey was carried out before the demonstrations on Saturday, November 7.
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