ECONOMY Economic policy

Fitch maintains France's A+ rating despite the expected increase in deficits

Fitch maintains France's A+ rating despite the expected increase in deficits
Fitch maintains France's A+ rating despite the expected increase in deficits

Fitch Ratings has maintained France's sovereign credit rating at A+, with a stable outlook. This decision means that no rating changes are anticipated in the short or medium term. French debt thus remains considered to have a high credit quality, despite a deteriorating fiscal situation.

The assessment is based in particular on the size and diversification of the French economy, the strength of the banking sector, and the existence of a diverse investor base. These strengths are nevertheless offset by high public debt, limited growth potential, and a political environment that complicates the implementation of a sustainable deficit reduction.

A deficit expected to reach 5,5% of GDP in 2027

Fitch now anticipates a public deficit of 5,2% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared to 4,9% in its previous assessment. This would reach 5,5% in 2027 before falling back to 5,2% in 2028. These revisions are due to weaker growth, an increased interest burden, and additional defense spending.

The French political situation also remains a point of concern for the agency, due to the lack of a parliamentary majority and the uncertainties surrounding future budget decisions. Two further assessments are expected in the coming months: Moody's is due to issue its report on October 23, followed by S&P Global Ratings on November 27, by which time budget debates will have begun. Fitch has maintained France's sovereign rating at A+, with a stable outlook. This decision means that no rating change is anticipated in the short or medium term. French debt thus remains considered to have high credit quality, despite a deteriorating budgetary situation.

The assessment is based in particular on the size and diversification of the French economy, the strength of the banking sector, and the existence of a diverse investor base. These strengths are nevertheless offset by high public debt, limited growth potential, and a political environment that complicates the implementation of a sustainable deficit reduction.

A deficit expected to reach 5,5% of GDP in 2027

Fitch now anticipates a public deficit of 5,2% of gross domestic product in 2026, compared to 4,9% in its previous assessment. This would reach 5,5% in 2027 before falling back to 5,2% in 2028. These revisions are due to weaker growth, an increased interest burden, and additional defense spending.

The French political situation also remains a point of concern for the agency, due to the lack of a parliamentary majority and the uncertainties surrounding future budget decisions. Two other assessments are expected in the coming months: Moody's is due on October 23, followed by S&P Global Ratings on November 27, by which time budget debates will have begun.

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