Paris-London: The end of Eurostar's monopoly could lower prices as early as 2029

Eurostar could lose its monopoly on the Paris-London rail link as early as 2029. Trenitalia plans to launch ten daily round trips between the two capitals, while Virgin Trains is preparing to enter the Channel Tunnel from 2030. Other operators, such as Gemini Trains and Evolyn, have also expressed interest in this particularly profitable market.

This opening to competition could lead to a significant drop in ticket prices. The booking platform Kombo estimates that fares could fall by around 30% by 2029-2030. This forecast is based in particular on the trend observed in France since Trenitalia's arrival, with a decrease estimated at 10% on the Paris-Lyon route and 30% on the Paris-Marseille route between 2022 and 2025.

Infrastructure at the heart of the battle

The arrival of new operators remains contingent on access to British tracks, stations, and maintenance facilities. The Temple Mills depot in East London is a key issue, as it is currently the only British site capable of accommodating trains of European dimensions. The British rail regulator has already authorized Virgin to use these facilities and to negotiate an agreement to operate up to twenty daily round trips to Paris, Brussels, or Amsterdam.

Faced with this future competition, Eurostar is also preparing its response. The company plans to invest two billion euros in fifty new trainsets and increase its capacity by 35% by the end of the decade. It is also considering new direct services between London, Frankfurt, and Geneva starting in 2030. Passengers could thus benefit from a wider range of services and more competitive fares, although the actual price reduction will depend on the number of operators able to implement their plans.