2027 presidential election poll: Marine Le Pen far ahead, Édouard Philippe remains best placed to challenge her

Eight months before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen clearly leads in voting intentions for the first round and would also win in all scenarios tested in the second round, according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche . Édouard Philippe, however, appears to be her most competitive opponent.

In the first round, Marine Le Pen would garner between 34% and 35,5% of the vote, depending on the scenario. Behind her, Édouard Philippe would obtain between 17% and 20,5% if he were the sole candidate representing the center-right. He would then be ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, credited with 14% to 14,5%. However, the simultaneous presence of Gabriel Attal would significantly weaken the center-right camp: Philippe would fall to 14,5%, tied with the leader of La France Insoumise, while Attal could drop as low as 6,5%.

Glucksmann is gaining ground, Le Pen is the favorite in the second round

On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann is benefiting from momentum after announcing his candidacy, reaching between 11,5% and 14%. He is performing significantly better than François Hollande, polling between 7,5% and 8%, and Olivier Faure, around 3,5%. Marine Tondelier is fluctuating between 3% and 4%, François Ruffin is credited with 6%, while Bruno Retailleau is obtaining between 6,5% and 9,5%, depending on whether or not Édouard Philippe is also involved.

In the second round, Marine Le Pen would win in all the scenarios tested. She would crush Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 69,5% to 30,5%, and would also win against Raphaël Glucksmann or Gabriel Attal, with 57% to 43%. The closest contest would be against Édouard Philippe: 52,5% for Marine Le Pen against 47,5% for the Horizons candidate.

At this stage, the poll paints a picture very favorable to Marine Le Pen, while the main battle appears to be for second place. Édouard Philippe retains an advantage, but the fragmentation of centrist candidates could benefit Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Raphaël Glucksmann. The survey was conducted from August 26 to 28 among 1,501 people, with a margin of error between 1,4 and 3,1 points.