Banco Master scandal: Lula regains the advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential election

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has widened his lead in the polls against opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to a new survey published Friday by the Datafolha institute. This surge comes after revelations linking the right-wing candidate to a financial scandal surrounding Banco Master.

According to this poll, Lula would win in a potential runoff with 47% of the vote against 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro. Just a few days earlier, a previous poll showed the two candidates tied, a sign of a possible shift in the momentum of the presidential campaign.

In the first round, Lula would come out far ahead with 40% of the vote, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 31%. The other candidates appear far behind, notably Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, as well as Romeu Zema and Renan Santos at 3% each.

The incumbent president's surge comes after the publication of an investigation by the media outlet Intercept Brasil alleging that Flavio Bolsonaro negotiated a $24 million investment with the former owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro. This money was allegedly intended to finance a film inspired by the life of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio Bolsonaro has denied all accusations of wrongdoing. Lawyers for Daniel Vorcaro, currently detained as part of a wide-ranging investigation into the Banco Master bankruptcy, declined to comment on the published reports.

The Datafolha poll also tested an alternative scenario in which former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro replaced Flavio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate. In this scenario, Lula would still maintain his lead with 48% of the vote compared to 43% for Michelle Bolsonaro.

Without Flavio Bolsonaro in the race, Lula would even reach 41% of the vote in the first round, compared to 22% for Michelle Bolsonaro. The poll was conducted among 2,004 people between May 20 and 21, with a margin of error of two percentage points.