Brazil - Inflation rises again in September, driven by real estate @AP
Brazil - Inflation rises again in September, driven by real estate @AP

Inflation in Brazil rebounded in mid-September after briefly falling into negative territory a month earlier, according to data released Thursday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The consumer price index (IPCA-15) rose by 0,48% over the period, compared to a decline of 0,14% the previous month. This figure, however, remains slightly below the 0,51% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.

Over twelve months, inflation reached 5,32%, a level slightly below market forecasts (5,36%), but well above the 3% target set by the central bank, with a tolerance margin of 1,5 points.

The increase was mainly due to rising property prices, which rose 3,31% after falling 1,13% in August. This increase reflects, in particular, the impact of higher electricity costs.

Brazil's central bank recently decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 15%, the highest in nearly twenty years, after a 450 basis point monetary tightening cycle that began in September 2024. It warned that it was now entering a prolonged phase of stability in order to contain inflation for the long term.

The institution estimates that inflation will remain close to the official target in the first quarter of 2028, without fully converging towards it. IBGE data also indicate that prices rose in five of the nine groups studied, confirming persistent pressures in some key sectors of the economy.

What should we quickly remember?

Inflation in Brazil rebounded in mid-September after briefly falling into negative territory a month earlier, according to data released Thursday by