Episodes of extreme heat are expected to become much more frequent in the coming decades. Testifying before a Senate committee, the CEO of Météo-France, Virginie Schwarz , warned that the number of heatwave days in France could increase fivefold by 2050 compared to the reference period of 1976-2005.
According to Météo-France, these episodes will not only be more frequent, but also longer, more intense, and occur earlier in the year , with heat waves potentially starting as early as June and lasting until September. By 2100, in a scenario of a 4°C warming, some heat waves could even appear as early as mid-May and last until the end of summer.
Growing consequences for health and infrastructure
The head of Météo-France also points out that tropical nights , during which the temperature does not drop below 20°C, will become much more frequent. While France recorded an average of two such nights per year in the 1990s, this number could reach around ten by 2050 and approximately 24 by the end of the century, with peaks potentially exceeding one hundred nights on the Mediterranean coast.
These projections come in a context already marked by an acceleration of extreme weather events. France experienced a historic heatwave in 2026, the most intense ever recorded nationally, reinforcing calls to adapt cities, infrastructure, and public health policies to the effects of climate change.
