Sunday after Sunday, the polls show the same dividing line: the National Rally is leading the pack, while the Macron camp is still searching for the right formula. According to an Elabe survey published on Saturday, Édouard Philippe appears to be the centrist candidate best positioned to reach the second round of the next presidential election and, above all, the only candidate tested capable of defeating the National Rally in the second round. A snapshot of the moment, not a pronouncement, but a snapshot that matters.
In the first round, Jordan Bardella is given the lead in all scenarios, between 35% and 38,5% of voting intentions. Marine Le Pen This follows, measured between 31,5% and 34%. In this well-established context, Édouard Philippe, the re-elected mayor of Le Havre and president of Horizons, fluctuates between 20,5% and 25,5% depending on the scenario. He rises to 25,5% in the event of no Les Républicains candidate, with a strong National Rally and a fragmented left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon then being tested at 12%.
The central bloc is searching for its leader, the National Rally is rolling forward.
The detailed simulations also reveal the battle for positions, fought down to the smallest of margins. Édouard Philippe is polling at 22% in a scenario where Marine Le Pen is at 31,5%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 11,5%, François Hollande at 8,5%, and Bruno Retailleau at 8,5%. He drops to 20,5% when Jordan Bardella is tested at 35%, facing a left wing where Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann are both at 10,5%, and Bruno Retailleau at 7%. Meanwhile, Gabriel Attal is stuck at 11,5% and Gérald Darmanin at 8%, both overtaken in the race for qualification by Raphaël Glucksmann: the center has faces, but it hasn't yet found its magnet.
The second round, however, is the striking point. Édouard Philippe is projected to win against Jordan Bardella (51,5% to 48,5%) and against Marine Le Pen (53% to 47%). The other candidates tested would be defeated by the two National Rally figures, sometimes by staggering margins, such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon against Jordan Bardella (71,5% to 28,5%). A logic of strategic voting and a united front against the National Rally is emerging, but with a clear filter: not all candidates generate the same momentum of unity.
The usual caution remains, the kind the reader is right to demand. The survey was conducted by telephone from March 25 to 27 with 1.504 people, 1.422 of whom were registered, with a margin of error of 1,4 to 3,1 points, enough to shift a close race. And one date already looms large: a court decision expected on July 7 could influence a potential candidacy by Marine Le Pen. In this game where the cards are being reshuffled rapidly, the centrist bloc may have found a leader, the National Rally maintains its lead, and the campaign hasn't even truly begun yet.
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