Strait of Hormuz: Shipowners remain cautious despite the agreement between Washington and Tehran

Shipping companies in Asia and Europe remain cautious about a return to normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the agreement in principle reached between the United States and Iran to end the conflict and reopen this strategic sea route.

According to information released by both sides, a memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed in the coming days to end the war, lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, and allow the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This prospect has led to a drop of approximately 5% in global oil prices.

However, those in the maritime sector believe it will take time before things return to normal. Several companies are waiting for more guarantees regarding the safety of the area, particularly concerning the clearing of mines from the strait.

"The initial reactions from the maritime sector remain measured," said Haider Anjum, an analyst at Jyske Bank, noting that no massive influx of ships to Hormuz has been observed since the announcement of the agreement.

The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which began in late February, has severely disrupted navigation in this strategic passage through which approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports pass.

On Monday, the first LNG carrier, the DishaThe vessel, chartered by the Indian company Petronet LNG, crossed the strait heading towards India. This is currently the only significant movement observed since the announcement of the agreement.

The international shipping association BIMCO still considers the crossing of the strait a high-risk operation. Its head of safety, Jakob Larsen, stated that ship owners must be assured not only that the passage is permitted, but also that it is safe.

Japanese shipping companies also welcomed the agreement while urging caution. Several groups, including Nippon Yusen and Mitsui OSK Lines, indicated that they would only consider a full resumption of sailings after confirmation of satisfactory safety conditions.

In Europe, the German shipowners' association said it was "cautiously optimistic", while the Hapag-Lloyd company hopes to be able to resume crossings as early as this week.

According to data from the Kpler consultancy, approximately 155 oil tankers carrying crude oil or chemicals were still in the Gulf region as of June 15. Experts estimate that a full return to pre-war traffic levels could take several months.

Industry experts stress that clearing mines from the strait, normalizing insurance premiums, and restoring shipowners' confidence will be essential steps before a sustainable recovery of maritime trade in the region. Some estimates suggest that a return to normal volumes may not occur before 2027 if the agreement is fully implemented and regional stability is maintained.reuters.com)