After the war, Iran faces a political and social time bomb

While an agreement appears to pave the way for an end to the war between Iran and the United States, Iranian leaders may now face an equally formidable challenge: meeting the conflicting expectations of an impoverished population and a conservative camp emboldened by the conflict. For many observers, the most serious difficulties for the Iranian regime could begin once the fighting is over.

The Iranian economy was already weakened by years of international sanctions before being further strained by the war. The rising cost of living, the decline in purchasing power, and the economic hardship have fueled deep discontent among the population, which now hopes to reap the benefits of peace.

Faced with this situation, the authorities find themselves caught between two camps with opposing expectations. On one side, the most influential conservatives believe that Iran has emerged victorious from the confrontation with Washington. They are demanding a firmer stance in future negotiations with the United States, as well as a significant rearmament program aimed at strengthening the country's military capabilities.

On the other hand, a large segment of the population hopes that any benefits from sanctions relief or the release of Iranian financial assets will be used to improve living conditions. Many hope that these resources will be used to revive the economy, create jobs, and offer better prospects after years of hardship.

This conflict of interests presents Iranian leaders with a difficult choice. Allocating more resources to defense could fuel popular frustration, while prioritizing economic recovery risks alienating hardliners who consider national security the primary objective.

The memory of the mass protests that shook the country remains vivid. Unrest suppressed by the authorities earlier this year has already highlighted the depth of social discontent. Against this backdrop, Iranian officials fear a new wave of protests could erupt if the population's demands are not met.

For many analysts, the end of hostilities will therefore not mark the end of the Islamic Republic's difficulties. On the contrary, it could usher in a period of intense internal tensions, during which the government will have to arbitrate between the demands of its most loyal supporters and those of a population increasingly impatient with the economic crisis.