A battle on the right could propel Andy Burnham to power in the United Kingdom

The by-election to be held on Thursday in the Makerfield constituency could have major consequences for the political future of the United Kingdom. The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, appears to be the favorite to win this strategic seat, a victory that would pave the way for a possible candidacy to lead the British government against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

But according to observers, Burnham's potential success could be more linked to the divisions among his opponents than to his own popularity. The British populist right is indeed approaching this election deeply divided, with two rival parties vying for the same electorate.

On one side is Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, while on the other, the Restore Britain party is headed by Rupert Lowe. The two men were once allies before a particularly acrimonious political split last year. Their rivalry now threatens to split the Conservative and Populist vote in this constituency in northern England.

This election is considered one of the most important in recent British politics. Although only 77,000 voters are eligible to cast their ballots, the result could influence the future direction of the country and have a significant impact on the race for national leadership.

Opinion polls suggest that Andy Burnham directly benefits from this division. Voters who support the populist right could split between the two competing parties, thus reducing their chances of defeating the Labour candidate.

On the ground, this concern is already palpable. Some voters who support Reform UK fear that Restore Britain's presence will split the vote and make Burnham's victory easier. This situation illustrates the difficulties British populist movements face in maintaining a unified strategy.

While Reform UK made a spectacular breakthrough in the May local elections by winning 24 of the 25 council seats up for grabs, the battle now pitting its former allies against each other could finally offer Andy Burnham a decisive opportunity to bolster his national ambitions and establish himself as a serious contender for the post of Prime Minister.