Moscow now anticipates inflation between 6 and 7 percent in 2026, compared to the previous forecast of 4,5 to 5,5 percent, while GDP growth could hover around zero. The rise in fuel prices, exacerbated by Ukrainian strikes on refineries, is central to this assessment.
The Central Bank of Russia revised its economic forecasts downwards at a press conference held on July 25. The institution now projects inflation between 6 and 7% for 2026, well above the 4,5 to 5,5% range it previously anticipated.
Governor Elvira Nabiullina pointed to the "sharp rise in fuel prices already recorded" as the main factor. She described the situation as a "supply shock," acknowledging that this type of disruption falls outside the usual tools of monetary policy. Inflation expectations among households, businesses, and financial institutions have increased, which, according to the Central Bank, risks preventing any sustained slowdown in prices.
Since mid-May, the rise in fuel prices has accelerated. In June, several Russian regions experienced shortages following Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, carried out in response to the war launched by the Kremlin. Some analysts believe that real inflation could exceed official projections by the end of the year, particularly due to Ukrainian attacks targeting logistics hubs.
The GDP growth forecast has been lowered from 0,5-1,5% to 0-1%. For the fourth quarter alone, the projection has fallen from 1-2% to 0-1,5% year-on-year. "Businesses expect a slowdown in demand, as shown by real-time data," explained Nabiullina, adding that the temporary reduction in production capacity had prompted this revision.
The Central Bank estimates that fuel production capacity will be "gradually restored by the end of the year." But Ukrainian strikes continue: on Saturday, drones hit a refinery in Tyumen, a logistics site in Yekaterinburg, and a fuel depot in Rostov-on-Don.
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