A report warns of the rise in Chinese military capabilities against Australia.

China's capacity to conduct military strikes against Australia is expected to grow significantly over the next decade, according to a report published by the Australian think tank Lowy Institute. The study, however, concludes that the most immediate threats to Canberra remain cyberattacks and disruptions to critical communications infrastructure.

According to this report, Beijing's development of a new ultra-long-range stealth bomber, as well as the possible deployment of missiles and aircraft at bases closer to Australian territory, could "rapidly and significantly" enhance China's military projection capabilities in the region.

Analysts point out that China has been seeking agreements for several years to establish a military presence in certain Pacific island states. According to the report, the establishment of a Chinese base in this area would place a large portion of Australian territory within range of strategic bombers and facilitate more frequent military operations.

In the short term, however, experts believe that the most concrete risks do not necessarily stem from conventional weapons. China already possesses significant capabilities to disrupt Australian communications and maritime trade, notably by targeting undersea cables or exerting pressure on critical shipping lanes.

The report also highlights the strategic importance of the Indonesian archipelago, through which many trade routes linking Australia to the rest of the world pass. Disruption of these routes could have major economic consequences for the country, which is heavily dependent on maritime trade.

These findings come amid growing rivalry between China and Western allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia has significantly strengthened its military cooperation with the United States and the United Kingdom in recent years, particularly within the framework of the AUKUS security partnership.

According to the report's authors, Canberra must now prepare for a more complex strategic environment, marked both by the rise of Chinese military capabilities and by hybrid threats that could affect critical infrastructure, digital networks and trade routes essential to the Australian economy.