Faced with the crisis in Lebanon, the UN is preparing for the post-UNIFIL era and considering several military scenarios.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has presented the Security Council with several options for ensuring an international presence in Lebanon after the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires at the end of the year. In a letter seen by Reuters, he stressed the need to maintain a uniformed personnel presence to support stabilization efforts in the region.

Addressed to the fifteen members of the Security Council, this proposal comes as the security situation in Lebanon has deteriorated sharply in recent months. António Guterres believes that a United Nations mission will remain essential to support a strengthened political initiative aimed at finding a lasting solution to the conflict.

Three scenarios were presented. The first envisions a relatively large force of approximately 5,525 uniformed personnel. This would include unarmed military observers and four infantry battalions tasked with protecting the forces. According to the Secretary-General, this option would provide a credible monitoring capability along the entire Blue Line, which marks the de facto border between Lebanon and Israel.

The second option would reduce the force to approximately 3,000 personnel. The mission would focus primarily on the area between the Litani River and the Blue Line, with more limited surveillance capabilities but still based on a permanent physical presence and regular patrols.

The third scenario represents the smallest option, with approximately 1,980 uniformed personnel. This force would have a reduced observation and response capacity. António Guterres warns that it would not be able to continuously monitor the entire Blue Line without additional technological resources and would be less effective in reporting ceasefire violations or contributing to de-escalation between Lebanese and Israeli forces.

Established in 1978, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon currently has approximately 7,500 troops. Its future has become a central issue as regional tensions have escalated and clashes on the Israeli-Lebanese border have severely strained existing peacekeeping mechanisms.

The members of the Security Council will now have to examine these different proposals in order to determine the form that the future presence of the United Nations in Lebanon will take, in a context where the stability of the region remains particularly fragile.