Strait of Hormuz: risk of global food shock within six to twelve months, according to

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has just announced that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a systemic food shock and, within the next 6 to 12 months, a severe global food price crisis. Blocking this strategic waterway indirectly affects the production, transport, and distribution costs of essential agricultural commodities. A disruption of traffic in this area would drive up maritime freight costs, disrupt supply chains, and increase the energy used in agriculture, irrigation, food processing, and the transport of goods. These effects would gradually spread to all international food markets.

Grains, fertilizers, transport: a dreaded chain reaction

The main danger lies in the chain of consequences. A prolonged rise in energy costs would inevitably increase the price of fertilizers, whose production is heavily dependent on natural gas. Farmers would then face higher production costs, potentially reducing yields or postponing essential purchases. At the same time, disruptions to shipping routes could lengthen delivery times and increase insurance premiums, particularly for vessels operating in high-risk areas. These additional costs would ultimately be passed on to the prices of cereals, vegetable oils, processed products, and basic food imports.

Importing countries on the front line

The most vulnerable economies would be those heavily reliant on food and energy imports. For these countries, a simultaneous rise in fuel, freight, and basic commodity prices could quickly destabilize public finances and household purchasing power. Urban poor populations would be particularly exposed, as they already spend a significant portion of their income on food. A prolonged surge in prices could exacerbate food insecurity, trigger social tensions, and complicate humanitarian operations in already fragile regions.

Avoid export restrictions

To limit the risk of runaway demand, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is urging caution regarding export restrictions. During periods of tension, some producing countries may be tempted to protect their domestic markets by limiting their sales abroad. However, such measures can exacerbate panic on global markets and further drive up prices. The priority should therefore be to maintain the free flow of trade, avoid abrupt unilateral decisions, and preserve trust between producing countries, importers, and other international trade stakeholders.

Alternative routes and strategic reserves

The organization also recommends establishing alternative trade routes to reduce reliance on the most exposed routes. While these detours may be longer and more expensive, they would allow for the maintenance of some essential flows and prevent supply disruptions. Building up food and logistical reserves is also presented as a stabilization tool. These stocks could help countries temporarily absorb increased transport costs and mitigate pressures on domestic markets.

Protecting humanitarian flows

The continuity of humanitarian operations is another critical issue. In several regions dependent on food aid, rising transport costs or disruptions to trade routes could delay the delivery of essential goods. Protecting these flows is therefore essential to prevent the price crisis from turning into an acute food crisis in the most vulnerable areas.

A global risk to monitor now

The risk would not be immediate in its full magnitude, but it could develop gradually. The effects of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would unfold in stages: rising energy prices, increased fertilizer costs, strain on freight transport, higher agricultural costs, and then a knock-on effect on food prices. It is precisely this 6- to 12-month time lag that is worrying. It leaves a window of opportunity, but this window could close quickly if the tensions persist and if states react in a disorganized manner.

The FAO is therefore calling for a preventative response: diversifying routes, avoiding trade restrictions, securing humanitarian aid, and strengthening reserves. The objective is clear: to prevent a geopolitical and maritime crisis from becoming a global food crisis.