Despite the agreement with Iran, central banks are preparing to raise their rates again

The easing of tensions in the Middle East following the agreement between the United States and Iran is not enough to reassure central banks. Faced with inflation fueled by energy disruptions caused by the war, several major monetary institutions are signaling that they may continue to raise interest rates in the coming months.

According to officials and analysts, the price surge triggered by the Iranian conflict has become too significant to ignore. Even though oil markets are showing signs of stabilization following the interim peace agreement, the effects of the crisis on energy, transportation, and many other goods continue to be felt throughout the global economy.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) have recently suggested that further interest rate hikes remain possible. Their priority remains combating inflation, despite the risks that higher borrowing costs pose to economic growth.

Other central banks have already taken this step. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have implemented monetary tightening measures to contain inflationary pressures. Monetary policymakers believe that the normalization of energy markets could take time, even after the gradual reopening of trade routes in the Gulf.

Financial officials also fear that a premature relaxation of their policies could undermine their credibility. After several years of high inflation, central banks consider it essential to demonstrate their commitment to bringing price increases back towards their targets in a sustainable manner.

While the agreement between Washington and Tehran has reduced the immediate risk of a major energy shock, economists point out that its positive effects on inflation will not be instantaneous. Households and businesses could therefore continue to face higher borrowing costs in the world's major economies.

In this context, markets now expect a prolonged period of high interest rates, with central banks prioritizing the control of short-term inflation, even at the cost of a moderate economic slowdown.