The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its global growth forecast for 2025, now setting it at 3,3%, a slight increase of 0,1 points compared to its estimates last October. However, this overall outlook masks marked divergences between regions and countries, according to the report published this Friday.
Among the major economic powers, the United States records the largest upward revision, with growth forecast at 2,7% for 2025 (+0,5 points). These forecasts do not, however, take into account the future policies of the president-elect, Donald Trump, whose directions remain to be specified. This performance contrasts with that of the European Union, notably France and Germany, which are lagging behind a booming Spain (+2,3%).
Germany, which is emerging from two years of recession, is expected to experience weak growth in 0,3%, just positive. For its part, France sees its forecast lowered to 0,8%, in a context of tensions on energy prices and commercial uncertainties. These structural weaknesses are added to a delicate political and budgetary situation.
In China, growth is revised slightly upwards to reach 4,6% in 2025, but remains below the 4,8% of 2024, marking a downward trend. Conversely, India and Brazil are expected to benefit from a global economic rebalancing, although Brazilian growth remains stable at 2,2%.
The report highlights a gradual return of inflation to target levels in advanced economies, with a forecast of 2,1% for 2025 and 2% for 2026. Emerging countries should also see a drop in inflation to 5,6%, signaling a general improvement after the peaks reached in 2022.
While the global economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, structural and policy challenges could hamper growth. The IMF calls for enhanced reforms and international cooperation, particularly in the financial and trade sectors, to reduce gaps across regions.
