The candidacy of Marine Le Pen The prospect of a 2027 presidential election seems to be having a dramatic initial effect on opinion polls: far from being weakened by her conviction on appeal in the European parliamentary assistants case, the leader of the National Rally appears strengthened in voting intentions. Several polls published this Wednesday, July 8, converge on one point: Marine Le Pen is now in a position to come out far ahead in the first round and win the second round against the main opponents tested.
According to an Ifop poll conducted for LCI and Le Figaro after her candidacy announcement on TF1's evening news, Marine Le Pen would dominate all the scenarios tested. In the scenario where Édouard Philippe represented the centrist bloc, she would garner 36% of the vote, far ahead of the former Prime Minister (19%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15%). Facing a candidacy from Gabriel Attal, the dynamic would be similar: the RN candidate would retain 36%, while the leader of Renaissance and Jean-Luc Mélenchon would each be credited with 15%.
Another poll, conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for RTL and M6, confirms this trend. Marine Le Pen has even gained slightly since previous surveys, reaching between 34% and 36% of voting intentions depending on the scenario. This increase comes in a difficult context for the nationalist leader, following her appeal conviction and sentence of imprisonment with an electronic tag in the National Front parliamentary assistants case.
An electoral dynamic that is withstanding the legal case
The main takeaway from these investigations is that the legal case does not appear, at this stage, to be causing the electoral collapse that some observers had anticipated. On the contrary, the situation may have strengthened the mobilization of his electorate.
Marine Le Pen chose to turn this conviction into a political argument, denouncing a decision she considers an attempt to prevent her from running. Her swift announcement of her candidacy and her intention to appeal to the Court of Cassation allowed her to immediately dominate the media and place the presidential election at the center of the debate.
This strategy seems to be working with her core electorate. According to an Elabe poll for BFMTV, 68% of National Rally voters approve of her decision to run. A majority of French people, however, disapprove of this candidacy: 59% of those surveyed believe she is wrong to enter the race for the Élysée Palace despite her conviction.
This paradox sums up Marine Le Pen's current situation: she remains highly contested by the general public, but benefits from a particularly loyal and mobilized electorate.
A second round that now seems favorable to the National Rally
The projections for the second round are even more spectacular. According to Ifop, Marine Le Pen would win against Édouard Philippe with 54% of the vote, and would reach 55% against Gabriel Attal.
But it is above all the prospect of a duel against Jean-Luc Mélenchon that captures people's attention. The RN candidate would then be predicted to win by a wide margin, with approximately 67 to 70% of the vote according to polling institutes.
This situation reflects the collapse of the traditional "republican front" against the National Rally. For several decades, a far-right candidate reaching the second round automatically triggered a massive mobilization of their opponents. Current surveys show that a significant portion of voters no longer think this way.
The rejection of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and La France insoumise by a significant portion of the right-wing and center electorate could notably explain these very high scores in the event of a duel with the insoumis leader.
The center is still looking for its candidate
Given Marine Le Pen's anticipated dominance, the main uncertainty now concerns who will represent the center-right. Édouard Philippe currently appears to be the candidate best positioned to limit the National Rally's lead in the second round. In this scenario, the former Prime Minister would manage to create a much closer contest, with a score of 49% against 51% for Marine Le Pen, according to Harris Interactive.
Gabriel Attal currently appears to be less well-positioned. His candidacy would further divide the political landscape stemming from the presidential majority, while his profile is still struggling to gain traction against that of Édouard Philippe.
On the right, the Republicans remain in difficulty. Bruno Retailleau continues to be credited with a score of less than 10%, far behind Marine Le Pen and the main figures of the center.
The election is still wide open despite the polls.
While these polls demonstrate undeniable momentum for Marine Le Pen, they do not constitute a definitive prediction. Eleven months before the election, numerous events could still profoundly alter the political landscape: the economic situation, international crises, candidate selection, campaign debates, or even the final decision of the Court of Cassation.
Furthermore, a significant portion of the French population is still hesitant. Polls show that between 22% and 34% of voters could choose to abstain, cast a blank ballot, or invalidate their ballot in the second round, depending on the circumstances.
Marine Le Pen thus enjoys an unprecedented advantage in the French presidential election. But her main challenge remains unchanged for several years: to transform a strong electoral base into a national majority. While she seems closer than ever to the Élysée Palace, the presidential battle has only just begun.
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