Monaco parcel bomb attack: analyst Maciej Korowaj believes "a political-economic motive is the most likely"

Nearly two weeks after the attempted assassination of Ukrainian businessman Vadym Iermolaiev in Monaco, investigators are continuing their inquiries without favoring any particular lead. "All leads are still on the table," Monaco's Attorney General, Stéphane Thibault, recently reiterated.

While the judicial investigation continues, the analysis by Maciej Korowaj, a Polish specialist in security, intelligence and conflict issues in Eastern Europe, published by Monaco Weekly, provides a geopolitical perspective on this affair which, according to him, goes beyond a simple settling of scores.

An oligarch who became a symbol

For Maciej Korowaj, Vadym Iermolaiev's personality is central to understanding the attack.

The businessman, founder of the Alef conglomerate and based in Monaco, is part of what several Ukrainian media outlets call the "Monaco battalion," an expression referring to oligarchs who have left Ukraine since the beginning of the war to settle on the French Riviera.

According to the analyst, these large fortunes are now perceived by a part of Ukrainian public opinion as the symbol of an elite that has escaped the sacrifices imposed by the war, while the country continues to suffer the consequences of the conflict.

He also points out that Vadym Iermolaiev has been subject to sanctions decided by Kyiv since 2023, notably because of economic activities carried out in Crimea after its annexation by Russia.

"The political and economic motive is the most likely."

For Maciej Korowaj, the currently known elements lead to favouring a political-economic reading.

“In the case of Vadym Yermolaiev, according to analyses based on the available data, the political-economic motive is, in my opinion, the most likely,” he explains to Monaco Weekly.

The expert believes that this attack is taking place in a context where the war in Ukraine is gradually approaching a new political phase, marked by discussions around a possible ceasefire and by the prospect of future financial and legal settling of scores.

An attack designed as a message

One of the central points of his analysis concerns the modus operandi.

According to Maciej Korowaj, the choice of an explosive device placed in front of the building's entrance, rather than directly under the victim's vehicle or on a route taken daily, reflects a different logic than that of a simple physical elimination.

In his view, it was primarily a "reporting operation" intended to send a warning.

The objective would have been to demonstrate that the perpetrators were fully aware of the victim's habits, place of residence, and family environment.

According to him, the message was not only aimed at Vadym Iermolaiev but also at the other members of the "Monaco battalion", reminding them that their geographical distance would not necessarily protect them.

Three scenarios were studied.

In his interview, Maciej Korowaj insists that he does not formulate certainties but presents several working hypotheses.

The first, which he considers the most coherent in light of the available evidence, would be that of informal pressure from Ukrainian actors against an oligarch sanctioned by Kyiv.

The second scenario would be that of a settling of scores between oligarchs from the former Soviet space, although the analyst believes that the level of sophistication of the operation usually exceeds that observed in this type of private conflict.

Finally, a third scenario suggests a false flag operation intended to discredit Ukraine, a hypothesis which he nevertheless considers less likely.

Monaco faces a new threat

Beyond the perpetrators of the attack, Maciej Korowaj believes that this affair reveals the limits of the Monegasque security model.

According to him, despite an exceptional video surveillance network and a strong police presence, the Principality does not have real counter-espionage capabilities comparable to those of the major powers.

He therefore considers that Monaco has become not a target in itself, but a theatre of operations where geopolitical rivalries imported by some of its wealthiest residents can be played out.

This analysis does not prejudge the conclusions of the investigation.

Maciej Korowaj's analysis provides a strategic framework for understanding an exceptional case, but it does not constitute the conclusions of the judicial investigation.

The Monegasque authorities are continuing their investigations with their international partners in order to determine the origin of the explosive device, to identify any possible masterminds and to establish the exact motive for this assassination attempt.