Ivory Coast is forecasting a sharp increase in its cocoa production for the 2025/26 season, with an expected volume of between 2 and 2,1 million tonnes, according to estimates announced by the national regulatory authority for the sector.
This projection would represent an increase of approximately 10,5% compared to the previous season. This would be the first significant increase in Ivorian production in three seasons, following several years marked by climatic and health difficulties.
The Ivorian cocoa sector had been severely affected by adverse weather conditions, aging plantations and the rapid spread of shoot swelling disease, which affects cocoa trees and significantly reduces agricultural yields.
The chairman of the Coffee and Cocoa Council, Yves Brahima Koné, explained that the rise in world cocoa prices over the past two seasons had allowed producers to invest more in their farms.
According to him, farmers were able to buy more fertilizer and improve the maintenance of their plantations, thus contributing to a gradual recovery in yields. By May 11, cocoa arrivals at the main Ivorian ports had already exceeded 1,7 million tons, a sign of a dynamic deemed positive by the authorities.
This forecast far exceeds the estimates put forward in March by several traders and analysts interviewed by Reuters, who were expecting a harvest of around 1,8 million tonnes.
Despite this improvement, some market players indicate that a significant quantity of cocoa remains unsold in the country. Several exporters reportedly waited for prices to rise before releasing their stocks, in a global market still characterized by high price volatility.
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