TotalEnergies announced that the conflict in the Middle East ultimately had a more limited impact than anticipated on its hydrocarbon production in the second quarter of 2026. The French group estimates this decrease at approximately 210.000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), whereas it initially anticipated a loss of around 360.000 boe/d. This improvement is primarily due to the ramp-up of offshore production in the United Arab Emirates and the gradual resumption of activities in several countries in the region during June.
The group's total production is expected to reach nearly 2,4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day over the period. TotalEnergies specifies, however, that a significant portion of this production could not be delivered before the end of the quarter. These volumes were valued based on the oil price observed at the end of June, which was below $70 per barrel, and this is expected to weigh on the performance of the exploration and production division.
Results expected to rise despite tensions
Despite these disruptions, TotalEnergies anticipates improved results in its exploration and production business, with cash flow expected to increase by approximately one billion dollars compared to the first quarter. The group also expects a strong improvement in the performance of its refining and petrochemical activities, supported by more favorable margins. Oil trading activities are expected to remain at a high level.
Conversely, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) division is expected to see a significant decline in results, primarily due to underperformance in gas trading activities. TotalEnergies will publish its full second-quarter financial results on July 23.
In the first quarter of 2026, the group had already posted a net profit of $5,8 billion, up 51% year-on-year. This growth was driven by rising oil and gas prices and the strength of its trading activities, while a 4% increase in its global production partially offset losses recorded in the Gulf region.
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