The French population is expected to continue growing over the next decade before beginning a sustained decline. In its new demographic projections published this Monday, INSEE estimates that France could reach a maximum of 69,8 million inhabitants in 2037, compared to approximately 69,1 million today.
According to the central scenario adopted by the statistical institute, this demographic growth would be based primarily on net migration, while the natural balance, that is to say the difference between births and deaths, has now become negative.
A gradual decline starting in 2037
After reaching its peak, the French population is expected to begin a gradual decline. INSEE estimates that it could fall back to 65,9 million inhabitants by 2070, a level comparable to that observed in the mid-2010s.
This trend is mainly due to the continued decline in the birth rate. The institute anticipates that the fertility rate will fall from 1,56 children per woman in 2025 to 1,45 in 2028 before stabilizing at this level for the following decades.
Immigration, the main driver of growth
In this scenario, the net migration would remain positive with approximately 150,000 additional people each year, a trend close to that observed over the past ten years.
However, from the late 2030s onwards, these arrivals would no longer be sufficient to compensate for the natural deficit caused by the aging of the population and the sustained decline in the number of births.
An aging process that has become inevitable
While the population decline remains a projection, demographic aging appears to INSEE as a certainty. Increases in life expectancy and the arrival of the large baby-boom generation at advanced ages are expected to profoundly alter the population structure.
Those over 65 are projected to represent nearly a third of the population in 2070, compared to approximately 22% today. By then, their numbers would be twice as high as those under 20.
A sharp increase in the over-80s population
This trend will be driven primarily by the increasing number of people over 80 years of age. Their proportion in the population is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.
The INSEE also estimates that the number of centenarians could more than quadruple, rising from around 37,000 today to nearly 160,000 in 2070.
Major challenges for public policy
These projections highlight the challenges France will face in the coming years. Pensions, healthcare, long-term care, housing, and the organization of public services will all be directly affected by this demographic shift.
For INSEE, this work is not intended to predict the future with certainty but to inform public decision-makers about the major trends likely to shape French society over the coming decades.
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