The social security deficit could exceed 23 billion euros in 2026, according to a report by the social security accounts commission.

The Social Security deficit is expected to be significantly larger than anticipated in 2026, according to the spring report from the Social Security Accounts Commission. The document suggests a deficit that could reach €23,2 billion, an increase of €3,8 billion compared to the €19,4 billion budget approved by Parliament in December.

This worsening situation is mainly due to the economic slowdown and international tensions, particularly the rise in oil prices linked to the geopolitical context in the Middle East.

A more fragile budgetary situation than expected

The report estimates that the deficit would represent approximately 0,8% of GDP. Current projections are based on limited economic growth of 0,9% in 2026 and estimated inflation of 1,6%.

The commission's experts predict that a barrel of oil will remain around $100 until the end of May before gradually returning to $80 by the end of 2026. But they warn that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could further damage public finances.

According to the document, a sustained rise in energy and imported product prices would weigh heavily on French growth while fueling higher inflation.

The government is trying to limit the drift

The report specifies, however, that this estimate of 23,2 billion euros does not yet include the effects of the freeze on general employer contribution relief recently announced by the government.

This measure aims to offset the budgetary impact of the minimum wage increase scheduled for June 1st. If this freeze is fully implemented, the deficit would be reduced to approximately €20,4 billion, a smaller increase of €1 billion compared to initial forecasts.

The Social Security Accounts Commission, chaired by the Minister for Social Security, brings together members of parliament, social partners, and heads of the main social security funds. Its analyses serve as a benchmark for assessing the financial health of the French social security system.