Just over seven months before the first round of the presidential election, the balance of power is remarkably clear: Marine Le Pen dominates all the scenarios tested, with 34 to 36% of voting intentions. Behind her, Édouard Philippe appears to have the greatest potential to unite the former Macronist electorate, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains strong enough to threaten the centrist bloc's qualification. The Ipsos bva-CESI poll for Le Parisien paints a picture of a deeply fragmented political landscape, in which the National Rally (RN) clearly possesses the strongest electoral base.
Marine Le Pen now has an unparalleled base of support.
Marine Le Pen comes out on top in each of the six scenarios tested, with a score between 34% and 36%. The gap with her closest rivals is considerable: even in the scenario most favorable to Édouard Philippe, he reaches 22,5%, twelve points lower. In the scenario where Raphaël Glucksmann , Gabriel Attal , and Édouard Philippe are all candidates, Marine Le Pen scores 34%, compared to 15% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon , 14,5% for Philippe, 11,5% for Glucksmann, and only 7,5% for Attal.
The strength of the National Rally (RN) lies not only in its raw numbers, but also in the remarkable loyalty of its electorate. In the Philippe-Attal-Glucksmann scenario, 92% of Marine Le Pen's 2022 voters say they intend to vote for her again. When Philippe is the sole centrist candidate against Glucksmann, this loyalty reaches 93%. Conversely, Emmanuel Macron 's former electorate is fragmented: in a scenario with Philippe and Attal, 43% choose Philippe, 21% Attal, 15% Glucksmann, and 10% Marine Le Pen. This difference in loyalty is probably the key political takeaway from the poll: while her opponents still need to rebuild coalitions, Marine Le Pen already has a largely established electoral bloc.
This level of support is accompanied by another significant phenomenon. Among the candidates tested, Marine Le Pen is also the one who most "reassures" the French: 40%, ahead of Édouard Philippe at 36%, Gabriel Attal at 29%, and Bruno Retailleau and Raphaël Glucksmann at 28%. However, she remains highly divisive, as 60% say she worries them, including 48% who say they worry "a lot." In other words, the National Rally candidate retains a significant level of rejection, but this now coexists with the highest level of reassurance in the panel: a politically very different factor from simply measuring voting intentions.
Édouard Philippe takes a clear lead over Gabriel Attal
The battle for the legacy of Macronism, however, is clearly turning in Édouard Philippe 's favor . When the two former Prime Ministers are candidates simultaneously, Philippe obtains 14,5% to 16,5%, compared to 7,5% to 8,5% for Gabriel Attal. When he becomes the sole representative of the centrist bloc, his potential rises sharply: 19% against Raphaël Glucksmann and up to 22,5% when the Socialist candidate tested is Olivier Faure. In this latter scenario, Philippe even widens the gap by six points over Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is polling at 16,5%.
This difference is largely explained by their respective ability to win back Macron's 2022 electorate. Without Attal, 58% of Emmanuel Macron 's former voters would switch to Philippe if Glucksmann were to represent the Socialist Party and Place Publique; this figure rises to 68% when the Socialist candidate is Olivier Faure. Attal, running alone, retains a much smaller share of this electorate: 44% against Glucksmann and 52% against Faure. Most importantly, his candidacy is not enough to prevent Jean-Luc Mélenchon from overtaking him in several scenarios.
The simultaneous candidacy of Attal and Philippe thus appears to be the most dangerous scenario for the centrist bloc. It directly divides the electorate from the presidential majority and mechanically pushes Mélenchon closer to second place. With Olivier Faure on the left, Philippe is at 16,5%, Mélenchon at 16%, and Attal at 8,5%: only half a point separates Philippe from Mélenchon, who is far behind Marine Le Pen at 34,5%. The question of unification or competition among centrist candidates could therefore be one of the key strategic issues in the first round.
Mélenchon remains competitive, the traditional right caught in a vice
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains the most competitive candidate. His support fluctuates between 15% and 17% depending on the scenario, but his level is heavily dependent on the political options he faces. When Raphaël Glucksmann is a candidate, Mélenchon stays at 15%. Against Olivier Faure, he rises from 16% to 17%. This difference illustrates Glucksmann's greater ability to retain a portion of the social-democratic and green electorate. However, neither of the two socialist candidates tested comes close to Mélenchon: Glucksmann reaches a maximum of 14%, while Olivier Faure's support peaks at 5,5%.
Mélenchon, however, suffers from the opposite problem to Marine Le Pen: his 2022 electorate is far less fixed. In the Philippe-Attal-Glucksmann scenario, only 56% of his 2022 voters say they intend to vote for him again, compared to 16% for Glucksmann, 8% for Marine Tondelier , and 11% for Marine Le Pen. With Olivier Faure as the Socialist candidate, his loyalty rises to between 61% and 64%. Above all, his ability to qualify for the second round is accompanied by an exceptionally high level of rejection: only 19% of French people say they are reassured by him, while 81% are worried, with 71% expressing "great concern"—the highest level of strong concern among the main candidates tested.
On the right, Bruno Retailleau is struggling to find a foothold between Édouard Philippe and Marine Le Pen. His score fluctuates considerably depending on the political landscape, ranging from 6% to 10%. The shifts in voters from Valérie Pécresse's camp clearly illustrate this competition: when Édouard Philippe is the only centrist candidate running against Glucksmann, 41% of Pécresse's 2022 voters would choose Retailleau, but 30% would go directly to Marine Le Pen and 17% to Philippe. When Philippe disappears in favor of Attal, Retailleau can capture 56% of this former LR electorate, demonstrating that his potential for growth also depends on the configuration of the center-right.
At this stage, the poll doesn't just paint a picture of Marine Le Pen as the favorite in the first round; it reveals a fundamental asymmetry between an electorally consolidated National Rally (RN) and still fragmented competing blocs. Philippe has the best potential for uniting the heirs of Macronism; Mélenchon retains enough votes to capitalize on their divisions; Glucksmann exists but hasn't yet transformed his candidacy into a decisive force; Retailleau remains stuck between the center-right and the RN. Caution is obviously still necessary: the study was conducted online from August 31 to September 2 among 1,500 registered voters, using the quota method, and measures the balance of power at a given moment, not a prediction of the final result. But seven months before the election, one fact dominates all others: Marine Le Pen's opponents are still vying for second place, while she herself seems to have already secured first.
