Seven months before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen clearly leads in voting intentions, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be her main opponent for the second round. According to an OpinionWay poll for CNEWS and Europe 1 published on Friday, the National Rally candidate would garner between 32% and 34% of the vote in the first round, depending on the scenarios tested. The leader of La France Insoumise would qualify for the second round in two out of three scenarios.
If Raphaël Glucksmann were to represent the left outside of La France Insoumise (LFI), Marine Le Pen would come out on top with 34%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 17% and Édouard Philippe at 15%. The leader of Place Publique would garner 9%, ahead of Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau , who would receive lower scores. With Ségolène Royal as the candidate, Marine Le Pen would have 33%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17%, and Édouard Philippe 16%, while the former Socialist candidate would fall to 3%.
François Hollande, the only scenario that complicates the Le Pen-Mélenchon duel
The closest scenario is that of a François Hollande candidacy . Marine Le Pen would remain far ahead with 32%, but Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe would be tied at 16%. The former president himself would only garner 7%, but his presence alone would be enough to make the second-place finish much more uncertain.
This result primarily highlights the extent of the fragmentation within the center-right bloc. Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau were tested separately, which significantly splits the center-right electorate. Without a single candidate in this political space, Jean-Luc Mélenchon therefore retains a credible path to the second round.
Marine Le Pen predicted to win in both head-to-head contests.
The poll shows an even more dramatic second-round victory. Against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen would win by a wide margin with 67% of the vote compared to 33% for the left-wing candidate. Against Édouard Philippe , the gap would be significantly narrower, but the National Rally candidate would still lead with 55% to 45%.
Raphaël Glucksmann also appears to be the best-placed left-wing candidate outside of La France Insoumise (LFI), with 9%, far ahead of François Hollande at 7% and Ségolène Royal at 3%. But none of these three scenarios currently allows the non-Mélenchonist left to get closer to the second round.
At this stage, the main takeaway from the poll is twofold: Marine Le Pen is clearly dominating the first round, while the lack of unity among the center and right leaves Jean-Luc Mélenchon a clear path to the second. However, with the presidential election still a long way off and the political landscape particularly fragmented, these power dynamics could still shift significantly between now and April 2027.
