Seven months before the French presidential election, Brussels is already anticipating the consequences of a potential victory for Marine Le Pen. According to the Financial Times, several European governments are seeking to expedite certain strategic issues before the French vote, fearing that a National Rally victory could profoundly disrupt the balance of power within the European Union.
Marine Le Pen is currently far ahead in first-round voting intentions in several scenarios tested. This situation has obviously not gone unnoticed in Brussels, where France remains one of the most influential states in the European Union.
According to the Financial Times, several European officials therefore want to make rapid progress on certain issues before the French election, including the next multiannual budget of the Union, the common agricultural policy and several texts related to climate.
Fears of a French blockade
European concern stems from the positions advocated for several years by Marine Le Pen and the National Rally. The candidate notably wants to reduce France's contribution to the European budget, give more power to member states in matters of immigration and foreign policy, and reverse several European environmental measures.
A victory for Marine Le Pen could thus complicate the adoption of certain texts requiring the agreement of member states or profoundly alter the French position in the negotiations.
The European budgetary calendar is particularly sensitive. The next financial framework must determine the broad guidelines for EU spending for several years, and several capitals would like to avoid having the most important discussions still open after the French presidential election.
The Élysée Palace denies any strategy linked to Le Pen
The French presidency, however, disputes the idea that Paris is seeking to accelerate European negotiations specifically because of the presidential election.
European diplomats nevertheless acknowledge that French political uncertainty is now weighing on discussions in Brussels.
The French presidential campaign is thus beginning to have repercussions far beyond national borders. As the election approaches, the possibility of Marine Le Pen winning the presidency is no longer just a matter of domestic politics: it is also becoming a working scenario for European institutions.
