Presidential election 2027: Emmanuel Macron's electorate is fragmenting as the vote approaches

With less than a year to go before the 2027 presidential election, the electorate that had supported Emmanuel Macron His re-election campaign appears deeply fragmented. According to a study by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, only 35% of the president's 2022 voters remain loyal to the centrist bloc, embodied in particular by Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. The others are divided between voters attracted to the right (27%), the left (23%), or those who are now disillusioned (15%).

This development illustrates the difficulty Macronism faces in retaining its electoral base after having united voters from diverse political persuasions in 2022. Even among its most loyal supporters, backing of potential centrist candidates remains lukewarm. Édouard Philippe, however, appears to have a significant advantage over Gabriel Attal among this former electorate when it comes to assessing their ability to embody a future presidential victory.

The post-Macron era is taking shape in the polls.

The study also shows that voters who remain loyal to the center-right do not simply want an extension of the current five-year term. A majority of them believe that deeper reforms of French society are necessary. According to the authors of the survey, the argument of "blocking" the National Rally or Jean-Luc Mélenchon is no longer sufficient to sustainably mobilize this electorate.

Former supporters of Emmanuel Macron who are shifting to the right are primarily focusing on immigration and identity issues. Conversely, those moving closer to the left are emphasizing social and environmental concerns. As for disillusioned voters, they are mainly expressing their disappointment with the outgoing president's record. This realignment could have a significant impact on the battle for his succession in 2027.