Pierre Moscovici warns of an oil shock and puts fossil fuel dependence back at the center of the issue.

It's difficult to pretend nothing's wrong when the price of oil is so volatile. Pierre Moscovici, speaking on franceinfo yesterday, deemed the existence of an oil shock "undeniable," as the war in the Middle East fuels rising and volatile prices. His focus is on these rapid fluctuations that inevitably end up at the pump, on price tags, and ultimately in order books. The former Minister of the Economy links this tension to a direct impact on consumer prices and economic activity, with uncertainty taking hold: no one knows how long the conflict will last or to what extent it will disrupt supply chains.

The barrel as a thermometer, the bill as a wake-up call.

Moscovici outlines several possible trajectories, and as he unfolds these scenarios, the reader quickly understands that the consequences could escalate rapidly. He mentions a barrel of oil climbing to $120-150, with the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or damage to facilities in the Gulf—in short, the well-known points of vulnerability in the global market. At this level, he estimates the shockwave at 0,5 to 0,6 percentage points of GDP growth and 2 to 3 percentage points of inflation. Nothing is automatic, he warns; the outcome remains unpredictable, but recent history has shown how quickly a geopolitical crisis can transform into a crisis of everyday life.

It is as much political as it is economic: these repeated shocks leave their mark on growth, inflation, and public finances, emphasizes the head of the Court of Auditors. His conclusion is clear: it is "absolutely" necessary to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, a subject that has come back into the spotlight since the 2021-2023 energy crisis and the war in Ukraine. In France, as in Europe, the discussion intertwines security of supply, import bills, and climate trajectory with debates on energy sobriety, energy efficiency, electrification of uses, and increasing low-carbon production, from nuclear to renewables. And while energy planning aligns objectives and timelines, one reality is undeniable: the next fluctuation in the price of oil will be the deciding factor in today's decisions.