Ten years after En Marche, the Macronist majority is already dispersing towards 2027

Ten years already. April 6, 2016, Emmanuel Macron En Marche was launched like a coin thrown into a jammed machine, promising to remove "blockages" and shake up the established order. Today, this cross-party tool resembles an archipelago more than a war machine. Since 2022 and the lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the presidential camp has been living to the rhythm of compromises, texts negotiated down to the millimeter, and power dynamics that shift according to the mood of the Palais Bourbon.

Renaissance, formerly En Marche and then LREM, is marking this anniversary with little fanfare. The party is now led by Gabriel Attal, who took over in 2024, amid what is described as a tense atmosphere with the head of state. In his message to supporters, the former prime minister praises a "crazy gamble" and barely mentions Emmanuel Macron, a detail that speaks volumes about the current mood. Even at the heart of the party, the owner is no longer necessarily the center of attention.

The central bloc, a playground for ambitions

Around Renaissance, the historical allies are keeping their distance. François Bayrou's MoDem and Edouard Philippe's Horizons are working on establishing their presence and asserting their independence, each with its own timetable and strategy for the period after 2027. The target electorate overlaps, between the center and the center-right, but the methods diverge, as do the loyalties. The Ensemble coalition, built to govern, is standing, yes, but like a framework where each beam is testing its own strength.

This fragmentation has an immediate political cost. Reforms are implemented gradually, text by text, through concessions that sometimes leave a sense of incompleteness. Tensions between economic and social sensitivities, already visible since the second presidential term, become more pronounced, almost openly acknowledged, while rivalries within the party apparatus gain visibility. It is not long before a relative majority governs without personal ambitions transforming into political agendas.

Emmanuel Macron regularly calls for unity, but the authority of a president who is not running for re-election in 2027 does not have the same allure as in 2017, when everyone was pulling in the same direction. Local elections, followed by the presidential election, reshuffle the cards, and everyone is thinking about their next move, their launching pad, their place in the sun. The central bloc, once united by conquest, is entering a phase where the distance between allies is being measured, and where the realignment itself shows no sign of slowing down.