François Bayrou's general policy statement, scheduled for Tuesday at 15pm before the National Assembly, promises to be highly tense. After several hours of discussions on Monday with the Socialist Party, no non-censorship agreement was reached. The PS, through its secretary general Pierre Jouvet, denounced the lack of progress on their key demand: the immediate suspension of the pension reform, demanded as a guarantee to initiate new discussions.
At the heart of the negotiations, the suspension proposed by the Socialist Party would aim to freeze the legal retirement age at 62 and a half, as opposed to a gradual increase to 64 years planned by the reform. This concession is dividing the presidential camp. While some close to Bayrou, such as Yaël Braun-Pivet, say they are open to a temporary pause, others, notably Edouard Philippe and Mathieu Lefèvre, denounce a costly budgetary decline, estimated at 3 billion euros for 2025.
The Republican right, a pillar of the government, has also raised its voice. Laurent wauquiez warned that any compromise on this key reform would result in the withdrawal of his party's support. Valérie Pécresse added, calling the idea of suspension "a leap into the void without a parachute." This internal opposition complicates the task of the Prime Minister, already weakened by the spectre of a motion of censure tabled by La France Insoumise.
François Bayrou must also deal with increasing pressure from the Socialist Party, strengthened by its role as arbiter between the blocs. Olivier Faure, First Secretary of the PS, recalled that the suspension of the reform is essential to guarantee a serious renegotiation. The PS proposes to finance this freeze by the Pension Reserve Fund, an idea rejected by the Minister of Labor, Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet.
Despite the likely lack of support from the National Rally for the LFI motion, the government's position remains precarious. If talks with the non-Mélenchonist left fail, political stability could be called into question during the next budgetary stages. François Bayrou's highly anticipated statement will have to tread a delicate path between concessions and firmness.
