The government is preparing its final budget before the presidential election in a particularly deteriorated economic context. For 2027, Sébastien Lecornu 's administration is forecasting growth of only 1%, following a 2026 marked by a serious slowdown in the French economy. At the same time, the deficit reduction target is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.
Economy Minister Roland Lescure presented the macroeconomic framework adopted for the next budget on Friday. The Ministry of Finance is hoping for 1% growth in 2027, after the government's forecast of only 0,5% this year. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies ( INSEE) is even slightly more pessimistic for 2026, with a forecast limited to 0,4%.
The French economy will be virtually at a standstill by 2026.
The gap with initial forecasts is significant. The 2026 budget was based on 1% growth, before this estimate was gradually lowered. The war in the Middle East , rising energy prices, heat waves, high interest rates, and weak investment have weighed heavily on economic activity.
This situation considerably complicates the budget equation. Roland Lescure has already acknowledged that the target of reducing the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2026 will not be met. Furthermore, the debt burden is expected to reach approximately €65 billion this year, €4,5 billion more than initially projected.
The final decisions are expected on Thursday.
The government nevertheless hopes for a slight rebound next year. The Ministry of Finance presents its 1% growth forecast as "realistic," even though room for maneuver remains extremely limited. The final decisions regarding the 2027 budget must be made on Thursday before the bill is presented to Parliament at the end of the month.
For Sébastien Lecornu , the equation is as much political as economic. Just months before the presidential election, he will have to find tens of billions of euros in savings while avoiding triggering another political crisis in the National Assembly . And with growth almost at a standstill, the hope of quickly reducing the deficit is fading even further.
