If legislative elections fail to achieve an absolute majority, motions of censure could quickly overthrow future governments. To avoid such a scenario, the President of the Republic could choose to set up a government without political weight while awaiting the next dissolution.
The fear of an ungovernable country
Barely ten days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, support fromEmmanuel Macron attempted to describe the French political landscape after the elections of June 30 and July 7. The outcome of this election may not offer an absolute majority, that is, more than 289 deputies, as was the case between June 2022 and June 2024.
Once the results of the 577 constituencies are announced, a new relative majority would force several parties to form alliances to govern. None of the three main blocs would be able to compose a government alone, and attempts at negotiation between left and right parties could fail to obtain a stable majority.
Technical governments to avoid instability
The National Rally and New Popular Front blocs could also try to form coalitions. Even if successful, these alliances would remain fragile. A government could be overthrown by a motion of censure as soon as it did not have the support of 289 deputies. This situation could last until July 2025, because a new dissolution of the Assembly is impossible in the year following the previous one, according to article 12 of the Constitution.
To avoid a long period of instability, Emmanuel Macron could be tempted to appoint a non-divisive head of government, surrounded by consensual ministers. “The more ungovernable it is, the more technical it will be,” predicted a Renaissance executive. Such a technical government would be composed of senior officials and experts, chosen for their skills rather than their political legitimacy.
A technical government: experience and limits
Historically, France has not had a purely technical government. However, the first government of the Fifth Republic led by Michel Debré (1959-1962) came close, with figures like Maurice Couve de Murville and Pierre Messmer. Today, members of civil society are often called to ministerial positions, such as Nicolas Hulot, Éric Dupond-Moretti or Amélie Oudéa-Castéra.
The European example: between stability and crises
France could draw inspiration from European examples, such as Belgium or Italy. The latter has experienced four technical governments since the Second World War, the last of which was led by the economist Mario Draghi. These governments, composed of experts, are often legitimized by major political or economic crises.
These temporary governments are designed to solve specific problems, as Mario Draghi did with the post-Covid-19 economic recovery plan. However, they do not allow parties to overcome their internal crises and can even encourage the rise of anti-system parties, as shown by the example of the Brothers of Italy and Giorgia Meloni.
Towards a crisis of institutions?
The possibility of seeing a similar scenario in France remains uncertain. According to Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public law, the current crisis in France is above all political, and the appointment of a Prime Minister not from a competing party could prove difficult. Such a situation could lead to a deep reflection on the capacity of French institutions to manage a tripolar political landscape, risking transforming the political crisis into a regime crisis.
Conclusion
Faced with an uncertain political future, France may be forced to explore new avenues to maintain governmental stability. The use of technical government, although never fully experienced in France, could offer a temporary solution to avoid institutional chaos and prepare the ground for new elections. However, this scenario is not without risks and could lead to unforeseen consequences in the long term.
