First, the bombs. Then the flight. In Iran, the protracted fighting is beginning to cause concern even in European chancelleries, where possible routes to the Union are already being examined. In Berlin, the tone has hardened: Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on March 6 for "preventing uncontrolled migration from Iran," explaining that he did not want "to see the Syrian scenario repeated here." The barely veiled message is aimed as much at European partners as at a German public still marked by 2015.
On the ground, the strikes primarily target military infrastructure. However, war never entirely follows the military's plans: fuel depots have also been hit, causing an "oil rain" that falls on the civilian population, bringing with it shortages and health risks. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees warns of a "major humanitarian emergency" in the Middle East, as the crisis deepens. And when the air becomes unbreathable, both literally and figuratively, families don't wait for an official announcement to pack their bags.
Berlin wants to avoid "the Syrian scenario"
Berlin wants to avoid a "Syrian scenario." On the European side, the European Union Asylum Agency makes no secret of its concern: in its annual report, it considers the "scale of the potential risk" of a migratory wave to be "significant." Previous regional crises, however, offer a useful reminder: the majority of displaced people first seek refuge nearby, in neighboring countries, before Europe experiences a surge in arrivals, especially if local reception capacities become overwhelmed or if certain routes to the EU reopen, like a tap that was thought to be sealed.
For now, the signs mainly point to a country urgently reorganizing itself. Iranian traffic police recorded 100.000 departures from Tehran during the first two days of the strikes: a massive internal exodus, revealing widespread fear and a survival instinct. Neighboring countries, however, have not reported a wave of crossings at this stage, even though they are usually the first areas of refuge. In other words: the shockwave is building, but it has not yet reached the floodgates.
The fact remains that Europe has learned, sometimes the hard way, that distant crises often end up knocking at its door. Germany wants to anticipate, the Commission observes, public opinion grows impatient, and humanitarian organizations raise the alarm: four clocks that never tell the same time.
