The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has drastically lowered its forecasts for global economic growth to 2,8% in 2025 et 3% in 2026, against 3,3% expected for these two years in the January 2025 update of its global economic outlook. This decline is due to rising trade tensions and political uncertainty, particularly following the new customs duties imposed by the United States and retaliatory measures taken by their trading partners.
In its report published on Tuesday, during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings In Washington, the Fund warns against increased risks of slowdown, citing the possibility of a trade war, the erosion of policies to protect against future shocks, and the potential for financial instability. Conversely, a reduction in tariffs and the signing of new trade agreements could promote global growth.
The IMF also noted global inflation averages 4,3%, compared to 4,2% previously, with a forecast drop to 3,6% in 2026.
He calls on countries to strengthen a stable business environment, to facilitate debt restructuring, to address common challenges, and calls on central banks to adjust their monetary policy to ensure price stability and financial stability. He also insists on the need to restore budgetary room for maneuver and to put public debt on a sustainable trajectory, while meeting critical public spending needs.
The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, clarified that the April 2025 forecasts were established in a difficult context, particularly after the announcement in the White House Rose Garden where the president Donald Trump unveiled a new list of customs duties targeting the majority of countriesThis forced the Fund to quickly revise its projections.
He explains that the successive waves of US tariffs have pushed tariffs to record levels, both in the United States and globally, severely affecting the global economy.
Consequences of customs duties on global growth:
According to Gourinchas, the main expected effects are:
About the exchange rate, the effect of customs duties is complex: the dollar could appreciate in the short term, but end up to depreciate if productivity drops.
The IMF recommends that the trade policy aims at stability, with some win-win agreements, and that the monetary policy remains proactive. Some countries will have to tighten their policies to control inflation, while others might have to lower their rates to counter demand shocks.
Differentiated impacts according to regions:
1. Advanced economies:
2. Emerging markets and developing countries:
3. Sectoral impacts:
4. Risks to financial stability:
Key IMF recommendations:
