Here's an acronym that sounds like a password, AMOC, and yet it refers to our daily weather. A French team, in a study published in "Science Advances," estimates that this vast Atlantic circulation, often confused in public debate with the Gulf Stream, could slow down much more significantly by the end of the century than many climate models have suggested. In their high-end scenario, the decline would reach approximately 50% by 2100.
The authors describe the prospect as "very worrying" without announcing a total shutdown, but the picture is clear: this great ocean energy conveyor risks running at half capacity, with all that this implies when the thermometer and the winds depend on such a colossal mechanism.
A discreet engine, very tangible effects
This system, which handles staggering volumes (flows comparable to tens of millions of cubic meters per second), functions like a redistribution plant; hot water rises northward, cools, becomes denser, and then sinks deeper, a ballet regulated by temperature and salinity.
However, climatologists have already observed signs of a slowdown since the 20th century, driven by warming and the influx of freshwater linked to the melting of Greenland or changes in rainfall patterns, even if the exact extent remains debated, as continuous direct measurements are recent and annual variability is high. A marked weakening could affect rainfall, storms, and sea levels on a regional scale, particularly on the East Coast of the United States, while Western Europe would monitor its weather patterns with less certainty than before. The IPCC considers a collapse before 2100 unlikely, without ruling it out, and the question that is emerging, almost silently, is that of a new climate normal to which we will have to adapt, year after year.
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