Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait, the conflict spreads throughout the region

The Iranian military claimed responsibility Friday for a drone attack on the Ahmad Al-Jaber airbase in Kuwait, where US forces are stationed. According to a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, the drones targeted hangars, satellite communication systems, and equipment warehouses. Tehran presented the operation as a direct response to a US airstrike that hit a residential building on Qeshm Island, killing three people.

Washington has not yet officially responded to the attack. The extent of the damage and any potential American casualties remain unknown.

The previous day, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it had struck dozens of targets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran overnight from Wednesday to Thursday. Explosions were reported in Fars province, on Kish Island, and in the provinces of Bushehr, Khuzestan, and Hormozgan.

Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, believes Iran is trying to outmaneuver the United States. “Iran doesn’t want to let Washington decide when to start the war, when to temporarily suspend it, and when to resume it,” he said. According to him, Tehran is now targeting “the launching pads for future operations.” He distinguishes between an American “vertical escalation,” based on the intensification of direct strikes, and an Iranian “horizontal escalation,” which consists of expanding the geographic scope of the conflict.

The conflict is indeed spilling over beyond the Iranian-American border. On Thursday morning, Jordanian armed forces announced they had intercepted and shot down five Iranian missiles launched toward the kingdom. Kuwait also confirmed the death of a worker in an Iranian attack targeting a building belonging to a Chinese company in the north of the country. Beijing indicated on Friday that no Chinese nationals had been harmed and asked Kuwait to take the necessary measures to protect its citizens.

In Iraq, drones struck a camp belonging to an Iranian Kurdish opposition group east of Erbil on Wednesday. That same day, the United States and Saudi Arabia launched attacks against pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, citing a series of 30 drone strikes "directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" over 72 hours against Saudi oil facilities. On Friday, the official IRNA news agency announced the return to Iran of the bodies of five Revolutionary Guard members killed in these US-Saudi strikes.

The war also threatens maritime routes. Since July 20, the Houthis in Yemen, backed by Iran, have imposed a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia and stepped up their attacks in the Red Sea. In response, Riyadh announced on Thursday the formation of a multinational maritime coalition to protect trade and energy routes in the region. A Ukrainian drone also struck an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, prompting the Ukrainian chargé d'affaires to be summoned to Tehran. Kyiv has stated that it is targeting Russian vessels and ships carrying military equipment linked to Iran.

In Egypt, the government confirmed that a fire that damaged two ships in the Mediterranean port of Damietta on Wednesday was the result of a drone attack. According to sources close to the investigation, the drone struck the American-owned LNG carrier Energos Winter before the flames spread to a second vessel. No organization has claimed responsibility for the attack. Iran denied any involvement, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calling for "vigilance against Israeli plots and false-flag operations."

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, believes the most likely scenario remains a series of mutual military reprisals between Iran and the United States, while diplomatic efforts involving the Gulf states continue in parallel. "The moment to watch is for a direct attack that would trigger a collective military response from the Gulf states against Iran, as well as the threat of an escalation by the Houthis in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait," she warned.