The price of Brent crude oil broke through the $100 a barrel mark on Wednesday for the first time since July, driven by fears of a lasting disruption to supplies linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The oil market is sending a warning signal. Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel on Wednesday, a level not seen since July. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at the Danish bank Saxo Bank, sees this as a shift in investor perception: "The move towards and above $100 reflects a market that increasingly needs to revise its assessment of how long the crisis in the Middle East will continue to weigh on regional supply."
Two factors are fueling this price pressure. Attacks by the Iranian -backed Houthis against Saudi energy infrastructure threaten oil deliveries transiting through the Red Sea, an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, the United States has struck Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command ( CENTCOM ) justified these strikes by stating that "Iran uses these tankers as part of a multi-billion-dollar clandestine network that finances the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its regional proxies."
Since the start of the conflict, oil exports have been significantly reduced, forcing several countries to draw on their strategic reserves. The United States has thus reached its lowest reserve level since 1982, at 289,7 million barrels. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump both used these stocks to mitigate the impact of rising consumer prices.
The current price, however, remains below the peak recorded in April, when Brent crude climbed to $126 a barrel. Experts believe the market has little room to absorb further disruptions related to the war, which poses a major risk to the stability of global supplies.
