Switzerland votes on capping its population: a referendum with potentially major consequences for Europe

The Swiss are going to the polls on Sunday to vote on an initiative to limit the country's population to 10 million by 2050. Supported by the Swiss People's Party (SVP), the country's main right-wing party, this proposal is presented by some observers as a vote likely to have consequences comparable to those of Brexit on relations between Switzerland and the European Union.

The text stipulates that the Swiss population, currently estimated at around 9,1 million, cannot exceed 10 million. Once the population reaches 9,5 million, the government would be required to strengthen immigration rules, particularly regarding asylum and family reunification. According to projections, this threshold could be reached in the early 2030s.

If the population were to surpass 10 million, the authorities would be forced to use all available means to bring it back below that threshold. This could include challenging certain international agreements that promote population growth.

One of the most sensitive provisions concerns the free movement agreement concluded with the European Union in 1999. If Switzerland fails to meet the ceiling set within two years, it may be forced to denounce this agreement, which allows citizens of the Union to live, work or study in Switzerland, while granting the same rights to Swiss citizens within the EU.

Supporters of the initiative argue that rapid population growth is putting increasing pressure on infrastructure, housing, transportation, and public services. They point out that Switzerland's population has grown faster than that of the European Union since the free movement of people came into effect in 2002.

Opponents warn of the economic consequences of such a change. They fear a labor shortage in several key sectors and worry about a deterioration in relations with Brussels, given that many parts of the Swiss economy depend on trade and mobility with European countries.

The referendum result is being closely watched far beyond Switzerland's borders. A "yes" vote could usher in a new period of uncertainty in relations between Bern and the European Union and reignite the immigration debate in several countries across the continent.