North Korea is considering sending up to 50,000 additional troops to Russia

After an initial contingent of 14,000 to 15,000 North Korean soldiers were deployed to Russia's Kursk region in late 2024, Ukrainian and Western intelligence services suspect Pyongyang of preparing to send an additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops. North Korean ballistic missiles have already been launched from Russian territory.

Military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang is escalating. In late 2024, North Korea deployed an initial contingent estimated at 14,000 to 15,000 troops to assist Russia in defending the Kursk region against Ukrainian incursions. Now, Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies suspect Pyongyang of planning to send an additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops.

According to Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko of the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, these new forces would primarily be assigned to securing Russian border territories, particularly in Kursk and the southwestern Voronezh region. "These forces could free up Russian occupation troops," he explained. "Russia would then be able to deploy approximately 15,000 additional soldiers to the front lines in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, or even Chernihiv." He does not anticipate a North Korean presence on Ukrainian territory itself.

Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev shares this interpretation. Distinguishing between the reconquest of Russian territory and participation in a war of aggression on internationally recognized Ukrainian soil constitutes, in his view, a fundamental diplomatic difference. Leviev adds that he has not observed a significant and concrete North Korean presence in Russia, and that Moscow still has sufficient manpower. "If you look at the front line, you can see that Russian forces have been quite active since mid-July," he says. "This is a sign that they still have sufficient numbers."

Economist Janis Kluge, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, confirms this analysis: despite signs of tension in the Russian recruitment campaign, regional budget data indicate that Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers per day.

On the missile front, the data is less speculative. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) indicates that North Korea has delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles since the beginning of 2025. In July, Volodymyr Zelensky reported that one of these projectiles struck a house near Kryvyi Rih, killing two adults and three children. The HUR also reported that a North Korean missile unit was being deployed to the Voronezh region, where it could be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles.

Military expert Yuri Fyodorov calls these weapons "instruments of terror." Comparable to Russian Iskander missiles but with a heavier payload, greater range, and lower accuracy, the KN-23 and KN-24 can only be intercepted by American-made Patriot air defense systems, which Ukraine desperately lacks. Kovalenko believes that Moscow is seeking to increase the number of launches not due to a lack of reserves, but to "spread more terror."

Leviev observes that Russia has launched far more ballistic missiles this summer than in previous years. If its stockpiles were to run out by winter, "North Korea's reserves will still be there, to ensure that Ukraine cannot breathe a sigh of relief."

None of the experts consulted believe that North Korean involvement will constitute a decisive turning point in the conflict. Jenny Town, of the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes that the moment when this intervention could have significantly changed the situation has passed. She sees this rapprochement instead as a mutually beneficial partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang, destined to strengthen as the war progresses. Kovalenko, for his part, is particularly worried about the autumn: "October, November, and December could become very trying for Ukraine," he warns.