While the United States and Iran attempt to solidify a ceasefire, Israel is adopting a long-term military strategy, preparing for a protracted conflict across the region. This approach marks a turning point in Israeli security doctrine, according to several military officials.
At the heart of this strategy is the establishment of "buffer zones" in several neighboring territories, notably in Gaza, Syria, and now Lebanon. These zones are presented by Israeli authorities as defensive measures designed to keep threats away from their borders.
This strategic repositioning comes in the wake of the attacks of October 7, 2023, and more than two years of conflict. According to Israeli officials, it is based on the observation that groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the militias supported by Tehran cannot be definitively eliminated.
“Israeli leaders have come to the conclusion that they are engaged in an endless war against adversaries who must be contained and weakened,” explained Nathan Brown, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This approach therefore prioritizes long-term containment rather than total military victory.
In this context, Israel agreed to suspend its direct strikes against Iran as part of the ongoing truce, but made it clear that it would continue its operations against Hezbollah, Tehran's ally. This choice underscores the complexity of the conflict, which is unfolding on several fronts simultaneously.
Hezbollah entered the war in early March by launching rockets against Israel, triggering a military response that included a ground incursion into southern Lebanon. The stated objective is to establish a buffer zone extending to the Litani River, encompassing approximately 8% of Lebanese territory.
As diplomatic efforts continue between Washington and Tehran, the Israeli strategy appears to be long-term, suggesting persistent instability in the Middle East and increased difficulty in achieving lasting peace.
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