Hungary: The Tisza party is poised to secure a historic supermajority and overturn the political balance

In Hungary, the opposition party Tisza could pull off a major upset in Sunday's parliamentary elections. According to a projection published by the Median polling institute, this center-right party is poised to secure a two-thirds majority in Parliament, a crucial threshold that allows it to amend the Constitution and the country's fundamental laws.

Led by Peter Magyar, Tisza is projected to win 138 to 142 of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, well above the 133 seats needed for a supermajority. Such a result would pave the way for major institutional reforms, particularly to unlock currently frozen European funds.

Faced with this dynamic, Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party are confronting the most serious challenge to their power in 16 years. Long dominant on the Hungarian political scene, the ruling party is now relegated far behind in voting intentions, with projections of between 49 and 55 seats.

The far-right party Mi Hazank ("Our Homeland") is expected to win between five and six seats, according to the same estimate. This limited result confirms the ongoing reshaping of the Hungarian political landscape, now structured around a direct confrontation between the ruling party and a strengthened opposition.

These projections are based on an analysis of five opinion polls conducted between the end of February and March, which lends them some weight, though it does not guarantee the outcome of the election. Sunday's vote will be crucial in confirming or refuting this trend.

If it materializes, a landslide victory for Tisza would mark a historic turning point in Hungary, ending more than a decade of Fidesz domination and opening a new political phase, potentially more aligned with the expectations of the European Union.