Hezbollah weakened but combative: massive losses, internal pressure and a risky gamble on Iran

Hezbollah is going through one of the most difficult periods in its recent history after going to war against Israel on March 2. According to internal estimates not yet disclosed, the Lebanese Shiite movement has suffered heavy losses, with several thousand fighters killed, while Israel has taken control of part of southern Lebanon and caused the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Beyond the military cost, this decision has also had serious political consequences in Lebanon. In Beirut, Hezbollah's opponents are increasingly openly denouncing its status as an armed group, which they consider a direct threat to the country's stability. This growing opposition is weakening the movement's influence, which had long been dominant on the Lebanese political scene.

Tensions escalated in April when the Lebanese government engaged in direct talks with Israel for the first time in decades. Hezbollah strongly opposed this move, illustrating the deep internal divisions over the strategy to adopt in the face of the conflict.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah sees a possible way to turn the situation around. More than a dozen of the group's leaders have indicated that closer ties with Iran, which is engaged in a war against Israel and the United States, could reverse the current momentum. The movement, historically supported by Tehran since its creation in 1982, is counting on this alliance to regain strategic and financial leverage.

According to these officials, a stronger stance alongside Iran could compel international actors to include Lebanon in the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran. They also believe that Iranian pressure could foster a more robust ceasefire than the one agreed upon in November 2024, which they consider insufficient to guarantee lasting stability.

Hezbollah remains deeply weakened by the consequences of the previous conflict, which claimed the lives of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and approximately 5,000 of his fighters. This series of losses, combined with increased political opposition, calls into question the movement's ability to maintain its central role in Lebanon, as the country remains caught in a spiral of regional tensions.