The war in the Middle East is expected to weigh heavily on the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, scheduled for this week in Washington. Global economic leaders fear another major shock to the global economy, following the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
According to several senior officials from both institutions, global growth forecasts will be revised downwards, while inflation projections will be revised upwards. The reasons cited are soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict, which are particularly affecting emerging and developing economies.
Before the outbreak of the war in Iran on February 28, the IMF and the World Bank were actually planning to improve their growth projections, buoyed by the resilience of the global economy. But the conflict reversed this momentum, slowing the recovery and complicating the fight against inflation worldwide.
The World Bank's new estimates now project growth of 3,65% for emerging markets and developing economies in 2026, down from 4% previously. In a scenario of prolonged conflict, this growth could fall to 2,6%, exacerbating economic risks for the most vulnerable countries.
Meanwhile, inflation in these economies is expected to reach 4,9% in 2026, compared to an initial forecast of 3%. In the worst-case scenario, it could climb to 6,7%, exacerbating social and economic tensions. Faced with these prospects, experts are calling for urgent measures, including targeted aid, debt relief, and structural reforms to limit the impact of this new global crisis.
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