In Lebanon, a majority of Sunnis now favor peace with Israel

A historic turning point appears to be underway in Lebanese public opinion. It has long been known that the vast majority of Lebanese Christians support the idea of ​​peace with Israel, while Shiites remain overwhelmingly opposed. But a new element is profoundly changing the country's political and social landscape: a majority of Sunnis in Lebanon now say they favor a peace agreement with the Jewish state.

According to a poll conducted by International Information, a company renowned for its rigor and methodology, 52% of Lebanese Sunnis now support the idea of ​​peace with Israel. This figure shifts the overall majority of Lebanese to the side of those in favor of an agreement, with over 55% supporting it nationwide. Specifically, 84% of Druze and 76% of Maronites are in favor, while 92% of Shiites continue to oppose it.

This development is all the more significant given that Sunnis have long been the main bulwark against any prospect of rapprochement with Israel, due to their historical commitment to the Arab and Palestinian cause. Their shift therefore represents a major strategic change in the political balance of Lebanon.

The poll also shows that 55% of Sunnis support opening direct negotiations with Israel. Even more surprisingly, 40% favor direct contact between Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This figure would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago, even though Netanyahu remains deeply unpopular in much of the Arab world due to the war in Gaza and his association with the Israeli hard right.

These figures could even be underestimated. A phenomenon well known to pollsters, called the "Bradley effect," shows that some respondents hesitate to publicly express an opinion deemed socially sensitive. In Lebanon, publicly supporting peace with Israel remains taboo in some Sunni circles and can lead to criticism or social pressure.

Another notable element is the lack of explicit support from the traditional Sunni political class for such a project. Of the 27 Lebanese Sunni members of parliament, only Fouad Makhzoumi has clearly expressed his support for peace with Israel. As for Saad Hariri, still influential with a significant portion of the Sunni electorate, he has never publicly taken a position on the issue.

Furthermore, the survey only considers residents living in Lebanon, while a significant portion of Lebanese Sunnis reside in the Gulf countries. This diaspora appears, overall, even more open to the idea of ​​closer ties with Israel.

Despite continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabia's hesitation to move towards regional normalization, and the lack of progress on the Syrian-Israeli issue, this dynamic appears to be taking hold. Support for normalization between Lebanon and Israel has reportedly risen from 13% to 30% in less than a year.

What is at stake today goes far beyond a simple poll: it represents a major shift in Lebanese public opinion on one of the most sensitive issues in the country's contemporary history. The question now is whether the Lebanese political class will follow this evolution in society.